1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to data processing technology for processing always-fluctuating time-sequence data, and particularly relates to a processing device and processing method handling time-sequence data which predicts fluctuations to occur in the time-sequence data and further issue warning according to the prediction results.
More specifically, the present invention relates to a processing device and processing method which handles prices of products, services, etc., in a marketplace economy, as time-sequence data, and predicts fluctuation of the data and issues warnings according to the prediction results, and more particularly relates to a processing device and processing method which handles prices in an open market wherein dealers are allowed to freely set prices such as selling prices and buying prices, as time-sequence data.
2. Description of the Related Art
There is a dominant principle in marketplace economy societies, that the price of products are determined by an equilibrium between supply and demand.
The properties in such a marketplace economy can be represented by supply-and-demand curves such as shown in FIG. 16, as is well-known. That is, while the demand curve is a curve wherein prices gradually descend according to the quantity of products on the market, the supply curve is a curve wherein prices gradually rise according to the quantity of products. The intersection between the two curves is the equilibrium point between supply and demand, and market prices of products are determined based on this. The fact that time-sequence data in market economies such as market prices can be analyzed by computer systems and that future tendencies can be predicted are well-known from both information processing and economic fields.
However, it is a common view that the supply-and-demand curve such as shown in FIG. 16 does not apply to so-called “open-markets” wherein the dealers can freely set selling prices and buying prices. Examples of an open market are securities markets including stock markets, exchange markets, gold and futures markets, and so forth. The reason that common supply-and-demand curves cannot be applied to these is that the buyer and the seller are often the same. That is, in an open market, the price of products are determined in an ever-changing manner, in response to various factors including the predictions and strategies of multiple dealers made up of buyers and sellers.
In a general trading market, the movements can be grasped by calculating correlation functions regarding fluctuations in trading prices. However, in an open market, increasing the number of samples (i.e., continue measuring trading prices for long periods of time) causes the sampled data to cancel one another out, thereby loosing the correlation so the trends in the trading market cannot be grasped.
Movements in the open market, i.e., market prices of various products, are even now fluctuating from one second to the next on a global scale. The accuracy of such product price predications does not only affect the profits of a group of dealers, but rather could affect the social stability of a region, nation, or even the global community.
To rephrase this straightforwardly, accurately and effectively predicting the always-changing product prices in an open market, and issuing warnings regarding prediction results indicating abnormal price fluctuations, is an important and urgent issue which must be addressed.